How Much Has The South Bay Real Estate Market Changed Since 2021?
If you bought your home during 2021 or 2022, you bought during one of the wildest housing markets Santa Clara County has ever seen. Homes were selling in days, buyers were bidding way over the asking price just to have a shot, and there was almost nothing on the market to choose from.
Now it's 2026, and a lot of homeowners from that time are asking me the same thing: "Did I actually gain anything, or did I just buy at the worst possible time?"
Here's the simple answer: it depends a lot on what kind of home you bought. Let me walk you through it.
The Short Version
If you own a single-family house: Your home is very likely worth quite a bit more than what you paid, in most South Bay cities, values have climbed somewhere between 15% and 24% since 2021.
If you own a condo or townhome: Your gain has probably been much smaller, more like 7% to 16% in most cities, and in a couple of cities, prices haven't really moved at all since 2021.
The market today is calmer and slower than it was in 2021–2022, but it's still a good market for sellers. Homes are still selling for more than the asking price in most areas, just not the crazy bidding wars you remember.
Why 2021–2022 Was Never the "Normal" Market
I want to clear something up first: 2021 and 2022 were not a normal housing market. They were unusual years, almost no homes for sale, super low interest rates, and everyone wanting more space at the same time because of the pandemic. That combination created a once in a lifetime kind of frenzy.
So when people compare today's market to those two years and say "wow, things have slowed down so much," that's not really a fair comparison. It's like comparing every restaurant's Saturday night crowd to New Year's Eve, of course it looks quieter. Today's market isn't weak. It's just back to being normal.
Here's what that looks like in the numbers for single-family homes across the county:
Average Days on Market (by year)
% of List Price Received (by year)
Translation: back in 2021, homes were basically gone in two weeks and buyers were throwing extra money at sellers just to win.
Today, it takes a bit longer (closer to three or four weeks) and buyers aren't quite as desperate. But sellers are still getting more than they're asking for, on average, when priced correctly. That's a genuinely good position to sell from. It's just not a feeding frenzy anymore.
The Part That Really Matters: What Is Your Home Actually Worth?
Days on market and bidding wars make headlines, but they're not what puts money in your pocket when you sell. What matters most is how much your home's value has grown since you bought it. That's where single-family homes and condos tell very different stories.
Single-Family Homes: Strong, Steady Gains
If you bought a single-family house in 2021 or 2022, here's how the typical (median) home price in your city has moved since then:
Single-Family Homes: 2021 vs 2025 Median Price
Across the whole county, the typical single-family home went from a median price of $1,620,000 in 2021 to $1,985,000 in 2025, a 22% jump. Even with the market slowing down and normalizing, home values kept climbing. If you bought a house, you're most likely sitting on solid, real equity, even after factoring in what you'd pay for commissions and closing costs.
Condos and Townhomes: A Much Softer Story
This is the part I really want condo and townhome owners to pay attention to, because it's very different from the single-family picture.
Condos and Townhomes: 2021 vs 2025 Median Price
See the difference? Most condos gained somewhere between 7% and 16%, roughly half the growth that single-family homes saw. And in Cupertino and Palo Alto, condo prices in 2025 were actually a little lower than they were in 2021.
Why the gap? A few reasons: condos and townhomes are more sensitive to interest rates because more buyers rely on financing, HOA dues have gone up and make some buyers hesitant, and there's been a steady stream of new condo construction in parts of the South Bay that gives buyers more options, which keeps prices from climbing as fast.
Condo sellers are also seeing homes sit longer. In San Jose, for example, the average condo took 20 days to sell in 2021. By 2025, that had stretched to 33 days, and the August 2026 snapshot shows condos there taking around 40 days on average. That's a real shift, and it means condo sellers need to be more thoughtful about pricing and presentation than they might have needed to be a few years ago.
Bottom line for condo owners: you may still have gained value, but it's likely a much smaller number than your single-family neighbors. Before you decide anything, reach out and I’ll help you get a real value estimate for your specific unit, not a county-wide average.
So Should You Sell in 2026?
Here's how I'd think about selling in the South Bay Area if this were my own home:
If you own a single-family home, the numbers are genuinely in your favor. Values are up meaningfully since 2021, and homes are still selling above asking in most cities when priced correctly.
If you own a condo or townhome, don't assume the same math applies. Run the actual numbers for your building and neighborhood first. Once you factor in what you'd spend on commissions, repairs, and closing costs, your net gain could be much smaller than you'd expect, or in a few pockets of the market, close to a wash.
Either way, price for today's market, not 2021's. Homes are taking a little longer to sell and buyers have more options than they did back then. Overpricing based on "what my neighbor got in 2021" is one of the most common mistakes I see sellers make right now.
Common Questions I'm Getting From 2021–2022 Buyers
"I bought my house at the top of the market, did I lose money?"
Almost certainly not, if it's a single-family home. Prices have kept climbing since 2021 in nearly every South Bay city, even with the market slowing down. "Top of the market" in 2021 doesn't mean today's prices are lower, it means the market has kept going up from there, just at a calmer pace.
"Is my condo worth less than what I paid?"
In most cities, no, but the gain is small, and in a couple of cities (Cupertino, Palo Alto) values have essentially been flat since 2021. This is exactly why I'd want to run a real number for your specific building before you make any decisions, just reach out.
"Why is my home taking longer to sell than when I bought it?"
Because 2021 wasn't normal, it was the tightest market we'd seen in years. Today's slightly longer timelines are actually the market returning to a healthy pace, not a sign that something's wrong.
"Are people still paying over asking price?"
Yes, in most South Bay cities, homes are still selling for slightly more than their list price on average when priced correctly. It's just not the extreme bidding wars of a few years ago.
"Should I wait for the market to get 'better' before I sell?"
That depends on your goals more than the market. Single-family values have been climbing steadily; there's no clear sign that waiting will get you a dramatically better number. For condos and townhomes, the picture is more building-specific, and that's a conversation worth having directly.
"What does it mean to 'price a home correctly'?"
"Priced correctly" doesn't mean pricing to match what you'd like to walk away with, it means pricing based on what similar homes near you have actually sold for recently. This is the principle of substitution: buyers won't pay more for your home than they'd pay for a comparable one down the street that just sold.
A lot of sellers price aspirationally, or anchor to their 2021–2022 purchase price without accounting for whether they overpaid during that bidding-war frenzy. Neither reflects what's actually happening in the market today. A home that's priced correctly sells quickly and gets offers at or above asking. A home that sits, gets a price cut, and eventually sells below asking was priced off the mark from the start.
The best way to get this right is to work with an honest and informed realtor who will show you the real comps for your home, not just a number that sounds good.
Let's Figure Out Your Actual Number
County-wide averages are a helpful starting point, but they won't tell you what your specific home is worth. Your city, your street, and whether you own a house or a condo can all change the math quite a bit.
If you bought in the South Bay in 2021 or 2022 and you're wondering what your home would sell for today, I'd love to pull the real numbers for your property and walk you through what they mean, just reach out.
Source: SCCAOR Market Housing Statistics
Chloe Dertinger | Realtor® | Lic. #02282915 | (408) 212-0732 | chloe@connectcahomes.com
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